When UPS’ second quarter package delivery demand exceeded 90% of the previous fourth-quarter’s volume the media rumblings of a strained delivery system began. As the summer months passed, consumer dependency on e-commerce showed no signs of slowing down. In reaction, the three primary carriers (UPS, FedEx and USPS) furiously reworked peak season demand forecasts, amplified season hiring needs, and announced a first-ever holiday surcharge. As the public took notice, the aforementioned media rumblings turned into a full-blown media campaign dubbed “Shipageddon.” It appears the severity of “Shipageddon” may have been turned up a notch in the first week of December when the news broke UPS was reportedly no longer picking up from six major retailers.

Does the arrival of “Shipageddon” spell disaster for retailers this season; or does this open the door of opportunity? By no means is an overtaxed delivery network welcome news for anyone, retailers, suppliers, or consumers alike. If not properly planned for, there is serious risk for anyone dependent on a heavy contribution of sales volume in December. On the bright side of the doom-and-gloom is that a backlogged delivery system may spur an increase in shopper traffic for brick and mortar. The nimble retailers are already embracing this challenge and adjusting their in-store operational strategy to deliver the intended sales plan. I believe there are five core considerations for a strategy build to overcome the imminence of “Shipageddon.”

1. Identify your top traffic or “must-win” days. The most simplistic component is often the most overlooked and I recommend that each individual store has full awareness to its own “must-win” days. If a retailer is without historical December traffic, leverage Sensormatic Solutions’ top busiest days for the holiday season list as a proxy.
2. Monitor weekly trend changes and adjust when demand shifts. In any other year, I wouldn’t promote weekly adjustments to the forecast. Typically, last week’s traffic has far less bearing on future weeks performance than the comparative week from the previous year(s). But, as you already know, 2020 isn’t a typical year. The current external forces we’re dealing with demand fluidity like never before and adjustments to be made in real-time. There aren’t that many shopping days left, so every one of them counts.
3. Align in-store staffing to the forecasted traffic levels. The rigors of forecasting traffic can only be realized if the store team is available to the demands of the in-store customer. In fact, since the beginning of the pandemic, our data tells us the shopper is more purposeful than ever before. Most of our clients are realizing year-over-year increases in Sales per Shopper (Conversion x ATS = SPS). If staffing levels aren’t aligned with the customer’s expected level of service, stores will be unable to capitalize on the determination of this year’s shopper!
4. Strengthen store level omnichannel infrastructure. The consumer has never been clearer: they prefer spending with retailers offering a seamless and efficient experience, regardless of channel. Sensormatic Solutions recent consumer survey indicates that (BOPIS) buy online, pick-up in-store (or curbside) adoption is up more than thirty percent in several categories, including clothing/apparel and shoes, compared to last year. This strategy is likely the most complicated, so I am going to break this down into three sub-components:
   1. BOPIS / Curbside Operations: Just like walk-in traffic, BOPIS/curbside activity needs to be forecasted. Using this forecast to ensure the required staffing is in place and properly trained. A secondary aspect for consideration is an evaluation of the physical infrastructure required to pull, process and store the forecasted demand. Nothing will slow down and frustrate a customer more than a lost package. Invest time today to ensure the resources required are available tomorrow.
   2. Increase website marketing for BOPIS and curbside services. Ensure everyone visiting the site is aware BOPIS/curbside services are available at their local store. In fact, why not incentivize the website visitor’s usage of BOPIS/curbside via something as simple as a bounce back coupon?
   3. Leverage local couriers networked with delivery firms such as Shipt and Instacart. Consider this a replacement for your traditional carrier’s “Last Mile Delivery,” or maybe a perfect option for last-minute delivery. Those last-minute shoppers can be very profitable, and as we near the end, this could be a game changing strategy in the final days.
5. Revisit your visual merchandising and replenishment plans. Sensormatic Solutions consumer sentiment survey tells us 77% of in-store shoppers chose an in-store experience for product-related reasons. The visual presentation and availability of product will be one of this year’s keys to success for brick and mortar. One cautionary note, keeping the store shoppable is more important than ever. This isn’t the year to overfill the floor or clog the aisles with tables of double exposed merchandise. The in-store customer continues to express concerns regarding effective social distancing. A store packed with additional fixture points will make it more difficult for customers looking to easily navigate the store.

Circling back to my original question: Does the arrival of “Shipageddon” spell disaster for retailers this season or does this open the door of opportunity? To me, the answer is clear. This is all about stepping through the door of opportunity by controlling the controllable. Take the strategy outlined above, modify it to meet the demands of your organization’s business model, and you are one big step closer to delivering your sales plan this holiday season. In the meantime, remember next year will look completely different!